Punjab Kings and Mumbai Indians collide on Sunday, 1 June 2025, at Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad with a place in the IPL final at stake. Punjab qualified directly for this match despite an eight-wicket defeat to Royal Challengers Bengaluru in Qualifier 1, while Mumbai arrive fresh from a 20-run triumph over Gujarat Titans in the Eliminator. With both sides brimming with match-winners and so much on the line, bettors have a fascinating Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians contest to appraise.
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Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians Match Preview
Punjab Kings finished the regular season on 19 points and topped the table thanks to a superior net run rate of +0.372 as the tiebreaker with Royal Challengers Bengaluru. Shreyas Iyer’s side had been on a run of four wins in five before their batting imploded for 101 in Qualifier 1, exposing a vulnerability against high-quality pace early on. Their recent form line now reads L W L W W in completed matches. Key players in this second qualifier include Iyer and Prabhsimran Singh, who have combined for 1,041, while Arshdeep Singh’s left-arm cutters have produced 18 wickets.
Mumbai Indians’ campaign has been defined by a late-season surge. Hardik Pandya’s men entered the playoffs with a L W L W W sequence and extended their season by winning against Gujarat by racking up 228-5. Rohit Sharma blasting 81 off 50 and Jasprit Bumrah conceding just 27 in four overs were key to their success in the Eliminator. Their net run rate of +1.142 is the best in the competition, and four wins in their last six outings indicate confidence is running high.
Historically, Mumbai edge the head-to-head 17-16, yet Punjab claimed a seven-wicket win when the sides met five days ago, chasing 185 with nine balls to spare. That recent result ensures there is no psychological barrier for Punjab, although Bumrah and Trent Boult will test the Kings’ top order with the new ball.
Betting Insights
Early odds from Dafabet list Punjab Kings at 2.40 and Mumbai Indians at 1.58, reflecting how evenly traders rate the contest despite Punjab’s superior league record. Player prop markets have Bumrah as the favourite for top Mumbai wicket-taker after 19 wickets at an economy of 6.4, while Arshdeep is the favourite in the equivalent Punjab book. Rohit’s resurgence sees him as favourite for Mumbai top run-scorer, but value may rest with Tilak Varma instead given his high strike-rate against left-arm pace.
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Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians Lineups
- Punjab Kings (probable XI): Prabhsimran Singh, Priyansh Arya, Josh Inglis (wk), Shreyas Iyer (c), Nehal Wadhera, Shashank Singh, Marcus Stoinis, Marco Jansen, Azmatullah Omarzai, Harpreet Brar, Arshdeep Singh. Impact: Kyle Jamieson.
- Mumbai Indians (probable XI): Jonny Bairstow (wk), Rohit Sharma, Suryakumar Yadav, Tilak Varma, Hardik Pandya (c), Naman Dhir, Mitchell Santner, Raj Angad Bawa, Richard Gleeson, Trent Boult, Jasprit Bumrah. Impact: Aswani Kumar.
Barring late fitness issues, both camps are set to remain largely unchanged from their most recent victories. Punjab may consider bringing in Kyle Jamieson up front to exploit Mumbai’s occasional frailty against the short ball.
Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians Prediction
The narrow spread illustrates how difficult this qualifier is to price. Punjab owns the stronger season-long body of work, boasts greater depth in all-rounders, and defeated Mumbai convincingly in their last league fixture. However, their collapse against RCB exposed a tendency to over-attack under pressure. Mumbai, conversely, arrive in hotter form, with Bumrah, Boult, and Santner forming a varied pace trio complemented by Santner’s control through the middle.
Punjab rely heavily on Inglis and Iyer for tempo; should either fall early, the middle order has shown signs of stalling. Bowling depth marginally favours Mumbai. Bumrah’s death-overs mastery and Boult’s swing in the first six make a potent book-end combination.
Verdict: Back Mumbai Indians to win. Their superior recent momentum, multi-dimensional pace attack, and confidence from chasing down 228 in the Eliminator give them a slight edge over a Punjab side that may still be reeling from Qualifier 1. For side markets, consider Rohit Sharma for Player of the Match and Jasprit Bumrah for top Mumbai wicket-taker.
