Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 6/4/2025

On June 4, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Truist Park for the second game of their series. Both teams enter this matchup with below-average records, with the Braves sitting at 27-32 and the Diamondbacks at 29-31. Despite their struggles, the Braves are favored, with a moneyline of -170, indicating a solid 61% implied win probability. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks come in as underdogs at +145, with an implied probability of 39%.

In their previous contest, the Braves lost 8-3 to the Diamondbacks and will look to bounce back today. The Braves' offense ranks 16th in MLB and is projected to score 4.47 runs, while the Diamondbacks boast a much stronger lineup, currently ranking 4th overall with a team total projected at just 3.53 runs.

Starting for Atlanta is Chris Sale, who has been nothing short of impressive this season with a 3.06 ERA and a Power Ranking of 10th amongst MLB pitchers. That said, he faces a challenge against a Diamondbacks lineup that has hit 84 home runs, ranking 4th in MLB. Sale's tendency to induce fly balls could play into Arizona's hands. Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Diamondbacks, holding a respectable 3.78 ERA and a Power Ranking of 69th.

While both pitchers project to pitch around 5.5 to 5.9 innings, Kelly's below-average projections in strikeouts (4.9) and earned runs allowed (2.9) could spell trouble against the Braves' hitters. Atlanta's best hitter has been strong lately, with a .304 batting average over the last week, while Arizona’s top bat has been even hotter, posting a .385 average.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Compared to the average pitcher, Merrill Kelly has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 3.7 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Eugenio Suarez's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 90.7-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 80.8-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale has utilized his slider 7.7% more often this season (48%) than he did last season (40.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Arizona's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Nick Allen, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.90 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+9.60 Units / 19% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.23, Atlanta Braves 4.64

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Chris Sale - Braves

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.