Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 6/5/2025

The Seattle Mariners will seek to continue their strong performance against the struggling Baltimore Orioles on June 5, 2025, at T-Mobile Park. Both teams faced off yesterday, with the Mariners coming out on top, riding the momentum of their above-average season with a record of 32-28. Conversely, the Orioles, who have only managed a 24-36 record, will look to win a sixth game in a row.

Starting for the Mariners is Bryan Woo, who has been exceptional this year with a 5-2 record and a remarkable 2.82 ERA, ranking him as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Woo’s average projection suggests he’ll pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out approximately 6.0 batters. However, he faces a unique challenge against the Orioles' low-walk offense, which could mitigate his strengths as a strike-thrower.

Opposing him is Zach Eflin of the Orioles, who holds a 4-2 record and a 4.46 ERA, placing him at 78th in the league rankings. Eflin is also projected for 5.8 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs but only striking out 4.6 batters on average. His high-flyball tendencies could spell trouble against a Mariners offense that ranks 6th in home runs this season, having launched 80 dingers thus far.

While both teams have an average bullpen ranking—19th for the Mariners and 4th for the Orioles—Baltimore’s offensive performance, ranking 21st in the league, is concerning. Given the Mariners' relatively strong hitting and Woo's pitching prowess, they emerge as the favorites in this matchup, reflecting their average implied team total of 4.18 runs compared to the Orioles’ low projection of 3.32 runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Zach Eflin's fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (90.8 mph) below where it was last year (91.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball hitters like Coby Mayo generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryan Woo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cal Raleigh has a ton of pop (99th percentile) if he makes , but that's always far from assured (26.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Zach Eflin has a pitch-to- profile (25th percentile K%) — great news for Raleigh.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make , which is often hard, home-run .

Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+6.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bryan Woo has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.45 Units / 58% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 3.92, Seattle Mariners 3.97

• Date: June 5, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

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