Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 5/30/2025

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off against the Boston Red Sox on May 30, 2025, both teams are in the midst of below-average seasons, with records of 26-29 and 27-31, respectively. The Braves, sitting in third place in the NL East, need a strong performance to turn their season around, especially against a powerful Red Sox lineup that's ranked 6th best in MLB.

Both teams are expected to feature below-average starting pitchers, with Grant Holmes and Lucas Giolito taking the mound. Holmes, who has a respectable 3.68 ERA, has shown signs of luck this season, as his xERA and FIP suggest. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs today, but with a high 5.7 hit projection, trouble could be brewing for Atlanta.

On the other side, Lucas Giolito holds a 5.27 ERA, which reflects his rough stretch. However, the projections indicate he might trend in a positive direction, as they suggest he's been somewhat unlucky. Giolito's average strikeout rate of 4.7 per game could certainly be challenged by a Braves offense that, despite being ranked 15th, has seen flashes of potential.

Betting odds favor the Braves, reflected in their moneyline of -165 and an implied team total of 5.27 runs. Atlanta's best hitter is on a hot streak, posting a .381 batting average over the last week, while the Red Sox's top hitter has been even more impressive with a .429 average.

The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, which suggests an expectation of runs on both sides. In this interleague matchup, it's crucial for the Braves to leverage their home advantage and capitalize on the Red Sox's pitching woes to emerge victorious.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Trevor Story has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today’s version of the Red Sox projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .314 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .325 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't ing for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Grant Holmes has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Matt Olson has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Atlanta's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the league: #6 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+9.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+8.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.80 Units / 27% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.73, Atlanta Braves 5.3

• Date: May 30, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Lucas Giolito - Red Sox
  • Grant Holmes - Braves

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.