Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 5/10/2025

On May 10, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium for the second game in their series. The Royals are currently enjoying a solid season with a 24-16 record, while the Red Sox sit at .500 with a 20-20 record. Kansas City is looking to build on a promising start, especially after their last game, where they showcased their resilience against a tough opponent.

The matchup features two elite left-handed pitchers: Cole Ragans for the Royals and Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox. Ragans, ranked as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB, has started strong this season with a 2-1 record and a solid ERA of 3.79. However, he has been a bit unlucky, as his 2.26 xFIP suggests he could perform even better going forward. Meanwhile, Crochet brings a 3-2 record and an outstanding ERA of 2.02, but his higher xFIP of 3.24 suggests he might not sustain this level of excellence.

Offensively, Kansas City struggles, ranking 25th in runs scored, but they are facing a Red Sox pitching staff known for its own inconsistencies. The projections indicate that Ragans may average just 2.1 earned runs allowed today, while Crochet is projected to yield 2.3 earned runs. With the Royals ranking 15th in team batting average, this might represent an opportunity for the struggling offense to capitalize against Crochet.

Betting lines suggest a close game, with the Royals set at +100 and an implied team total of 3.66 runs, which reflects the skepticism surrounding their offense. Conversely, the Red Sox are at -120 with a slightly higher implied team total of 3.84 runs. Given the current dynamics, expect a competitive matchup as the Royals aim to secure a key victory at home.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Garrett Crochet's fastball velocity has decreased 2 mph this year (95.1 mph) below where it was last year (97.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball hitters like Alex Bregman tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Cole Ragans.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue in the league today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Vinnie Pasquantino has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (95% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 4th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+12.90 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 41% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.8, Kansas City Royals 3.84

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

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