Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 5/28/2025

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Boston Red Sox for the third game of their series on May 28, 2025, at American Family Field. The Brewers are currently sitting at .500 with a record of 28-28, putting them in a mediocre position this season. In contrast, the Red Sox find themselves below average at 27-30. Both teams are trying to build momentum, but the Red Sox's offense has been performing notably better, ranking 6th in MLB, while the Brewers rank a dismal 25th.

As the Brewers look for another win today, they will rely on their ace, Freddy Peralta, who has had an impressive season so far with a Win/Loss record of 5-3 and an outstanding ERA of 2.55. Projecting around 5.7 innings pitched with 2.2 earned runs allowed and 7.3 strikeouts, Peralta's performance has been critical for the Brewers. However, his 4.15 xFIP indicates that he might be due for a regression if his luck doesn’t hold.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Brayan Bello, who has started 7 games this year with an average ERA of 4.08. Although Bello has been decent, he’s projected to allow 2.2 earned runs and is likely to struggle against the Brewers' groundball-heavy offense.

With the Brewers having the slight edge in the odds as a betting favorite with a moneyline of -155, this game represents a pivotal moment for them to capitalize on their strengths against a solid Red Sox lineup. Despite their recent struggles, if Freddy Peralta can harness his capabilities, the Brewers might just turn the tide in this matchup and secure a crucial victory.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello's higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (51.1 vs. 45% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.5-mph average to last season's 86.6-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox (24.6% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-most strikeout-prone batting order of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta's 2444-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 87th percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jake Bauers is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Boston (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games at home (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.94, Milwaukee Brewers 4.01

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

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