Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 6/6/2025

As the Chicago Cubs visit Comerica Park on June 6, 2025, they face off against the Detroit Tigers in what should be an exciting interleague matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Tigers sitting at 41-23 and the Cubs at 39-23. The stakes are high as they kick off their first series against each other this year. In their last outing, the Cubs secured a win, which could provide a confidence boost heading into this game.

Detroit's ace, Tarik Skubal, is projected to take the mound, and he comes in with an impressive 5-2 record and a sparkling 2.26 ERA. Skubal has been dominant this season, ranking as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His ability to limit walks—boasting a low 2.5 BB%—will be crucial against a Cubs offense that ranks 3rd in walks drawn. However, the Cubs have a high-strikeout rate, which could play into Skubal's hands, as he projects to strike out 7.1 batters today.

On the other side, Ben Brown will start for the Cubs. He has struggled this season with a 3-3 record and an ERA of 5.72. Despite his high strikeout rate of 28.0%, he faces a tough challenge against a Tigers offense that ranks 7th overall and is known for its ability to make solid . The projections suggest that Brown may have a tough time against a lineup that ranks 9th in batting average and home runs.

With the Tigers' bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, they have the depth to protect a late lead, while the Cubs' bullpen sits at a concerning 24th. The Tigers are favored in this matchup, and with both teams' current forms, they look well-positioned to capitalize on their home advantage.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Ben Brown is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #23 HR venue in MLB in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Matt Shaw's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 81.5-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 78.4-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's high utilization percentage of his fastball (53.9% this year) is likely weakening his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Extreme groundball bats like Javier Baez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ben Brown.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's game, Spencer Torkelson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.1% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 60 games (+15.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 57 games (+14.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.55 Units / 33% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 3.6, Detroit Tigers 3.88

• Date: June 6, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Brown - Cubs
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

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