Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Pick – 6/5/2025

The Washington Nationals will host the Chicago Cubs at Nationals Park on June 5, 2025, in what shapes up to be a compelling matchup between two teams heading in different directions this season. The Nationals, currently at 29-32, are struggling to find their footing, while the Cubs sit comfortably at 38-23, enjoying a strong campaign. In their previous encounter on June 4, the Nationals managed to secure a shutout victory over the Cubs, winning 2-0, which could give them a psychological edge heading into this game.

Starting for the Nationals is Jake Irvin, who has shown flashes of promise with a 5-1 record and a respectable ERA of 3.93. However, his recent performance raises concerns, as he was hit hard in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs over 5 innings. Irvin's xFIP of 4.57 suggests he may have been fortunate so far, and facing a potent Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd in the league in offensive production could spell trouble for him.

On the other side, Colin Rea takes the mound for the Cubs. Though he has a similar ERA of 3.96, Rea has also struggled in recent outings, giving up 6 earned runs in his last start. Both pitchers are right-handed and will be looking to bounce back from their respective rough patches.

Offensively, the Cubs boast the 2nd best batting average and the 5th most home runs in MLB, while the Nationals rank 15th in overall offensive performance. With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs set for this contest, the projections favor a high-scoring affair. The Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -145, reflecting their current form and overall strength this season.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Washington Nationals have 9 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Colin Rea today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Michael Busch has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.2-mph to 103.1-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs have been the luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin's fastball velocity has fallen 2.4 mph this season (91.5 mph) below where it was last season (93.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Chicago's #3-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Robert Hassell III, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen profiles as the 10th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 31 games (+6.38 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 55 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.20 Units / 34% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.47, Washington Nationals 5.08

• Date: June 5, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Cubs
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

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