Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 6/3/2025

As the Washington Nationals host the Chicago Cubs on June 3, 2025, in the first game of their series, both teams bring contrasting narratives into the matchup. The Nationals find themselves struggling this season, with a record of 28-31, while the Cubs boast a strong 37-22 record, positioning them as clear contenders in the National League.

The Nationals' Trevor Williams will take the mound, looking to shake off a rough season that has seen him post a 5.69 ERA across 11 starts. Although he has been labeled as one of the weaker pitchers in MLB, his 4.13 xFIP suggests he might be due for a turnaround, especially against a Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd overall in offense. Williams has shown decent control, with a low walk rate of 6.2 BB%, which could mitigate the Cubs' offensive strength.

Cade Horton will counter for the Cubs. While Horton has a solid 3.98 ERA, his projections indicate he could be in for some regression, especially given his 4.95 FIP. This matchup could favor the Nationals if Williams can take advantage of his control against a patient Cubs offense that might struggle to capitalize on walks.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 15th in MLB, with a decent batting average, but they can't match the Cubs, who sit 2nd in batting average and 3rd in runs scored this season. While the Nationals’ recent performances indicate some promise, particularly from their best hitters, the Cubs' offensive depth makes them the favorite in this matchup. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a potentially high-scoring affair.

With a moneyline of +130 for the Nationals and -150 for the Cubs, the Cubs are favored to win, but the overperformance of Washington's offense in recent games could make them a team to watch.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Considering that groundball batters have a big advantage over flyball pitchers, Cade Horton and his 37% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in today's matchup being matched up with 6 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Typically, hitters like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Trevor Williams.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Given the 1.48 difference between Trevor Williams's 5.69 ERA and his 4.21 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year and should see better results in future games.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen profiles as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+10.30 Units / 73% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 51 games (+10.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.70 Units / 39% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.34, Washington Nationals 4.67

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Horton - Cubs
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals

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