Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 6/1/2025

On June 1, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Chicago White Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Orioles holding a record of 21-36 and the White Sox at 18-40. Despite the dismal standings, the Orioles come into this matchup after a strong showing in their last game, where they managed to claim a hard-fought victory.

The expected starting pitchers, Charlie Morton for the Orioles and Adrian Ho for the White Sox, present an intriguing contrast. Morton has been less than stellar this year with a 1-7 record and an atrocious ERA of 7.09. However, his xFIP of 4.59 suggests that he may be due for some positive regression. In contrast, Ho is off to a remarkable start, boasting a 0.00 ERA in his two games this season, yet his xFIP of 3.81 implies that he may have been benefiting from a bit of luck.

Offensively, the Orioles rank as the 20th best in MLB, showcasing a decent ability to hit home runs, sitting 10th in that category. The White Sox, on the other hand, occupy the 28th spot in the MLB rankings for both team offense and batting average. This places them at a significant disadvantage, particularly against a Orioles bullpen that is ranked 3rd best in the league.

Given the current odds and projections, the Orioles are seen as favorites with an implied team total of 5.02 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on the White Sox's struggles. In a match-up that features two underperforming teams, the Orioles should have the edge, especially with their more robust bullpen and slightly stronger offensive showing.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Adrian Ho was in good form in his last outing and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Miguel Vargas is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#1-worst of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Charlie Morton is an extreme flyball pitcher (33% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Ramon Urias has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Heston Kjerstad has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 away games (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.80 Units / 20% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.63, Baltimore Orioles 5.05

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adrian Ho - White Sox
  • Charlie Morton - Orioles

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