Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets Pick – 5/26/2025

As the Chicago White Sox visit Citi Field on May 26, 2025, they find themselves struggling at the bottom of the standings with a record of 17-36, while the New York Mets sit comfortably at 32-21, enjoying a solid season. The Mets are currently projected to start Clay Holmes, who has been a reliable presence on the mound, boasting a Win/Loss record of 5-3 and an impressive ERA of 3.13 this year. Holmes is also ranked as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, indicating his effectiveness.

In contrast, the White Sox will send Adrian Ho to the hill. While Ho has a perfect record of 1-0 and an outstanding ERA of 0.00, the projections suggest that he has been fortunate, as his xFIP sits at a concerning 5.11. This disparity raises questions about his sustainability against a potent Mets offense that ranks 8th best in MLB this season.

The Mets' offense has been consistent. Meanwhile, the White Sox offense ranks dead last in MLB, struggling to find rhythm, which could be exacerbated by facing a high-groundball pitcher like Holmes. The Mets are a massive betting favorite with a moneyline of -295, reflecting their strong position in this matchup.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, analysts expect a competitive game, but the White Sox's lack of offensive firepower may hinder their chances against a Mets team that is not only favored to win but is also projected to score 5.34 runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Adrian Ho has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 61.8% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Matt Thaiss has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Clay Holmes turned in a great performance in his previous game started and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Pete Alonso has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last year's 89.7-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+11.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.00 Units / 23% ROI)
• Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.70 Units / 61% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.53, New York Mets 4.79

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adrian Ho - White Sox
  • Clay Holmes - Mets

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