Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 5/30/2025

On May 30, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field for the first game of their series. The Cubs are currently performing well, sitting at 35-21, while the Reds hover around .500 with a record of 28-29. This matchup is crucial for both teams, especially for the Cubs, who are looking to solidify their position in the National League Central.

In this game, the Cubs will give the ball to Colin Rea. There is potential for him to struggle against a Reds offense that ranks 12th in MLB. Rea's impressive 3.28 ERA is somewhat misleading, as his 3.97 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good luck. The Reds will counter with Andrew Abbott, who has been enjoying a stellar season with an outstanding 1.77 ERA, although his projections indicate he may also have enjoyed a dose of luck, evident in his 4.08 xFIP.

The Cubs possess the 3rd best offense in the league, bolstered by their power with 79 home runs this season. This will be crucial as Abbott is known for giving up fly balls—48% of his batted balls—and with the Cubs’ power-hitting capabilities, they could exploit Abbott's weaknesses. Furthermore, Chicago’s offense is adept at drawing walks, which plays into Abbott's high walk rate of 10.3%.

With an implied team total of 4.77 runs, the Cubs are heavily favored in this contest. The projections indicate that their offensive firepower should be enough to overcome the Reds' average performance, setting the stage for an exciting opener at Wrigley Field.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Chicago Cubs have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Will Benson has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.2-mph to 100.2-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cincinnati Reds have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Garrett Hampson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Colin Rea's 2202-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 20th percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, hitters like Justin Turner who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andrew Abbott.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 51 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.61, Chicago Cubs 5.21

• Date: May 30, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Colin Rea - Cubs

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