Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 6/1/2025

As the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds meet on June 1, 2025, at Wrigley Field, the stakes are elevated in this National League Central matchup. The Cubs, owning a strong 36-22 record, are having a remarkable season. In contrast, the Reds sit at 29-30, grappling with mediocrity. In their previous game, the Cubs edged out the Reds, continuing their solid run as they eye the postseason.

Chicago's Jameson Taillon takes the mound, projected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs today. Although Taillon ranks as the 141st best starting pitcher in MLB, his metrics suggest he's had a bit of luck this year—his ERA of 3.86 is bolstered by a 5.12 FIP. The Cubs will need him to show more consistency against a Reds lineup that holds the 12th best offense overall but lacks the firepower that could exploit his weaknesses.

Opposing him is Cincinnati's Nick Martinez, whose advanced metrics show him to be a stronger competitor, ranking 75th among MLB starters. Martinez has a solid ERA of 3.48 and projects to allow 2.3 earned runs over 5.4 innings today. However, both pitchers struggle with allowing hits and walks, potentially setting the stage for a run-heavy game despite the game's low total of 7.5 runs.

While the Cubs boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, the Reds rank 12th. The Cubs' offensive prowess, combined with Martinez's low walk rate, could favor the Cubs as they look to exploit their opponent's pitching. With a moneyline of -160 favoring Chicago, the projections suggest they have the upper hand—though the Reds may find a way to push back, making this a key contest in the series.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez has displayed good control this year, putting up a 88th percentile walk rate of 5.1%.

• One of the best indicators of future walks is past walks.

Will Benson has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.2-mph to 100.2-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball bats like Kyle Tucker usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Martinez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 56 games (+8.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.25 Units / 32% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+7.15 Units / 16% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.73, Chicago Cubs 4.01

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

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