Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 5/26/2025

On May 26, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Cincinnati Reds at Kauffman Stadium in an Interleague matchup. Both teams are looking to improve their standings, with the Royals currently sitting at 29-25, while the Reds are slightly behind at 26-28. The Royals are having an above-average season, and despite their struggles, they still boast a top-10 bullpen, ranking 9th in MLB. Conversely, the Reds' bullpen ranks 18th, which could play a crucial role in late-game scenarios.

Michael Lorenzen is projected to start for the Royals. He has a mixed season with a 3-5 record and a solid 3.77 ERA, though advanced metrics suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate this year. He’s averaging 5.4 innings pitched, which is typical, but his projections indicate he might struggle with allowing hits and walks, posting averages of 5.0 hits and 2.3 walks allowed. Nick Martinez will take the mound for the Reds, carrying a 2-5 record and an impressive 3.43 ERA. His projections suggest he will pitch around the same number of innings but may face challenges with strikeouts, averaging only 3.6 strikeouts against a Royals lineup that is one of the least strikeout-prone in the league.

Both offenses have their strengths and weaknesses. The Royals rank 26th in overall offensive performance, particularly struggling with power, as evidenced by their 30th ranking in home runs. In contrast, the Reds are 12th in offense, showcasing a more balanced attack with a strong stolen base game, ranking 4th in MLB.

With the Royals favored at -120, the projections suggest they might outperform their implied team total of 4.10 runs, especially given their recent form and the matchup against a low-strikeout pitcher like Martinez. This game promises to be a competitive affair, with both teams looking to gain momentum.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez has used his slider 9.2% more often this season (14.4%) than he did last year (5.2%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball batters like Elly De La Cruz generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

In his previous start, Michael Lorenzen turned in a great performance and compiled 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Michael Massey's launch angle this year (22.9°) is considerably higher than his 16.7° figure last year.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Kansas City Royals offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 41 games (+21.05 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.45 Units / 36% ROI)
• Gavin Lux has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+6.20 Units / 27% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.31, Kansas City Royals 4.28

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals

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