Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/18/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Overview

• Date: April 18, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
  • Brennan Bernardino - Red Sox
• Run Line: Guardians 1.5 -190, Red Sox -1.5 165
• Money Line: Guardians 100, Red Sox -120
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 48%
• Boston Red Sox - 52%

Projected Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 46.06%
• Boston Red Sox - 53.94%

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On April 18, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will face off against the Cleveland Guardians at Fenway Park. As the home team, the Red Sox will look to continue their above-average season with a win, while the Guardians aim to build on their great season so far.

The Red Sox currently hold a record of 10-9 this season, showcasing their solid performance thus far. Led by their projected starting pitcher out of the bullpen, Brennan Bernardino, the Red Sox hope he can get them off to a good start to secure a victory. Bernardino has appeared in four games for the Red Sox this year, giving up just one earned run in 5.1 innings of work.

On the other side, the Guardians boast an impressive record of 12-6 this season, indicating their strong performance. However, their projected starting pitcher, Carlos Carrasco, has struggled this year. While his ERA of 3.55 is good, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward. Carrasco's projected statistics for this game, such as innings pitched, earned runs, strikeouts, hits, and walks, are all below average or even terrible.

In their last matchup, the Red Sox emerged victorious, winning 2-0 against the Guardians. The betting markets expected a close game, with the Red Sox holding a slight edge in of implied win probability. However, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Red Sox are projected to have a 54% win probability, while the Guardians are projected at 46%.

When it comes to offensive performance, the Red Sox rank as the 22nd best team in MLB this season, indicating room for improvement. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league. The Guardians, on the other hand, rank 13th overall, with an average offensive performance. They particularly shine in stolen bases, ranking 7th in the league.

Both teams will be looking to capitalize on their strengths and exploit their opponent's weaknesses. With the game total set at 9.0 runs, it is expected to be a high-scoring affair. The Red Sox are currently favored with a moneyline of -120, implying a 52% win probability. The Guardians have a moneyline of +100, suggesting a 48% win probability.

As the game unfolds, keep an eye on the standout performances of Tyler O'Neill for the Red Sox and Josh Naylor for the Guardians, who have been their respective teams' best hitters this season. Additionally, consider the impact of the Red Sox's bullpen, ranked 12th best in MLB, and the Guardians' bullpen, ranked 14th best.

This American League matchup promises an exciting battle between two teams with different strengths and weaknesses. Will the Red Sox continue their above-average season, or will the Guardians shine and extend their great run? Only time will tell as the game unfolds at Fenway Park on April 18, 2024.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco has tallied 13.4 outs per start since the start of last season, placing in the 5th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Josh Naylor's batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Cleveland Guardians have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ramon Laureano, Estevan Florial, Gabriel Arias, Bo Naylor).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Pablo Reyes has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 7.5% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox makes them the #23 group of hitters in Major League Baseball since the start of last season by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 140 games (+17.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)

Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction: Guardians 4.97 - Red Sox 5.13

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