Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction – 6/4/2025

The New York Yankees will host the Cleveland Guardians on June 4, 2025, for the second game of their series. Currently, the Yankees are enjoying a strong season with a record of 37-22, ranking 2nd in MLB in offensive performance, while the Guardians sit at 32-27, marking an above-average season but ranking 22nd in offense overall.

In their most recent game, the Yankees continued their impressive form, capitalizing on their elite batting lineup. They feature a powerful offense ranked 2nd in home runs, which poses a significant challenge for Guardians’ pitcher Luis Ortiz, who has struggled with control, recording an 11.6% walk rate. This could spell trouble, as the Yankees also lead MLB in walks.

On the mound, Clarke Schmidt is projected to start for the Yankees. He holds a 3.95 ERA, which is somewhat inflated due to an unlucky 3.08 xERA. Schmidt's ability to limit earned runs (projected at 2.3 today) makes him a strong asset against a Guardians lineup that ranks 24th in batting average. Schmidt’s Power Ranking at #60 among MLB starters indicates that he is a solid pitcher, and today’s matchup could further bolster his statistics.

Conversely, Ortiz’s 4.40 ERA and high groundball rate could play into his favor against the Yankees' power hitters, but with a projected 5.1 earned runs allowed, he may struggle to contain New York’s offensive explosion.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs and Yankees favored with a moneyline of -185, betting odds suggest confidence in a Yankees victory. They possess an implied team total of 5.14 runs, hinting at another potential offensive showcase.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Luis L. Ortiz is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in the league — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Nolan Jones is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Clarke Schmidt's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (89.2% vs. 79.1% last season) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ben Rice has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95-mph average to last year's 90-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Austin Wells, the Yankees's expected catcher in today's game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+11.72 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 53 games (+7.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+10.70 Units / 134% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.07, New York Yankees 5.1

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

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