Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 6/3/2025

On June 3, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Colorado Rockies in what is shaping up to be a crucial matchup for both teams. The Marlins, with a record of 23-35, are struggling this season, while the Rockies sit at an even worse 10-50, marking them as the worst team in MLB. The Rockies are coming off a victory, having won 6-4 against the Marlins the previous day, which adds some momentum to their otherwise dismal campaign.

Miami’s Sandy Alcantara is projected to start, and while his Win/Loss record of 2-7 and a troubling ERA of 8.47 raise eyebrows, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a rebound. The projections indicate that Alcantara will pitch an average of 6.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs with a strikeout rate of 6.4 per game. However, his tendency to allow 5.7 hits and 1.3 walks per outing could play into the hands of a Rockies offense that, despite its struggles, ranks 1st in the league for strikeouts.

Chase Dollander will take the mound for Colorado, and his ERA of 6.28 and below-average performance have him on shaky ground. His projected 4.4 innings pitched and tendency to yield 1.6 walks could open the door for a Marlins offense that, while not prolific, ranks 18th in league-wide offensive metrics.

With the Marlins being favored at -175 with an implied team total of 4.79 runs, they have a solid opportunity to capitalize against a Rockies team that has an implied total of just 3.71 runs. Given the current trends and projections, the Marlins have the edge heading into this matchup.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Chase Dollander is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #24 HR venue among all parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan McMahon stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Colorado's 89-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in baseball: #24 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 8 bats of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Sandy Alcantara should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Batters such as Jesus Sanchez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Chase Dollander who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Eric Wagaman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 30 games at home (+4.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+10.67 Units / 18% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.77, Miami Marlins 4.63

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chase Dollander - Rockies
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.