Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 6/4/2025

The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies on June 4, 2025, in a matchup between two teams struggling to find their footing this season. The Marlins currently sit at 23-36, while the Rockies are languishing at a dismal 11-50. In their previous game, the Rockies managed to secure a victory over the Marlins for the second game in a row, but both teams are still far from contention, with the Rockies holding the 30th rank in the league for offense.

On the mound, the Marlins will send Cal Quantrill to the hill. Quantrill has had a rough season, with a Win/Loss record of 3-5 and an ERA of 5.84, ranking him as the 300th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats. However, his 4.44 xFIP suggests he may be due for some positive regression. Quantrill projects to pitch 5.3 innings today, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.3 hits and 1.5 walks per game raises concerns.

Facing him will be Rockies' Kyle Freeland, who has yet to secure a win this season, sporting an 0-8 record and an ERA of 5.72. Freeland's 3.65 xFIP indicates he, too, has faced some misfortune on the mound. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings today while allowing 3.0 earned runs, but his average of 6.4 hits and 1.2 walks could be problematic against a Marlins offense that ranks 18th in the league.

Given the Rockies' struggles, particularly their league-worst offense, the Marlins appear to have the edge in this matchup. With a solid betting line of -145, the projections favor Miami to produce a higher team total of 4.31 runs, compared to Colorado's 3.69 runs. This game could be an opportunity for Miami to capitalize on their home-field advantage and continue building momentum.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Out of all SPs, Kyle Freeland's fastball velocity of 91.1 mph grades out in the 19th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Orlando Arcia tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cal Quantrill.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Colorado Rockies bats tly rank among the worst in MLB this year ( 7th-worst) in regard to their 89-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Cal Quantrill is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #25 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Connor Norby has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 9% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 28 away games (+12.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+6.50 Units / 76% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.33, Miami Marlins 4.4

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins

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