Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Pick – 5/30/2025

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on May 30, 2025, they find themselves in a strong position with a record of 34-22, ranking 2nd in the National League East. The Mets are enjoying a solid season while the Rockies, at 9-47, are struggling significantly, currently sitting at the bottom of the National League West.

In their last outing, the Rockies faced a tough loss, which was compounded by the fact that they have lost five consecutive games, highlighting their ongoing difficulties. The Mets, on the other hand, have been riding high, bolstered by the performance of today's starter, David Peterson. The left-hander is projected to start today, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.79 and a solid Win/Loss record of 3-2. While Peterson's xFIP suggests some regression might be on the horizon, he has shown the ability to limit earned runs effectively, projected to allow just 2.3 earned runs today.

Kyle Freeland will take the mound for the Rockies, but his season hasn't gone as planned. With a 0-7 record and an ERA of 5.86, Freeland has struggled against opposing lineups, and today’s matchup against a potent Mets offense—ranked 9th overall in MLB—could spell trouble. The projections suggest that Freeland may allow around 3.2 earned runs, which could be a challenge given the Mets’ ability to capitalize on poor pitching.

The Mets' offense has been consistent, while the Rockies rank 29th in MLB, indicating a significant disparity in talent. With the Mets being favored heavily at a moneyline of -345, bettors might find value in their strong overall performance combined with Peterson's effectiveness on the mound against a struggling Rockies lineup. The low Game Total of 7.5 runs further indicates expectations for a one-sided affair, favoring the Mets as they look to extend their lead in the standings.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Considering that flyball batters have a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Kyle Freeland and his 31.9% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough position in this matchup matching up with 4 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Brenton Doyle hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (47.8% vs. 42.5% last year) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Brandon Nimmo has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 4th-best projected offense on the slate today in of overall hitting skill is that of the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 away games (+15.25 Units / 45% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.98, New York Mets 5.19

• Date: May 30, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • David Peterson - Mets

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