Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Prediction – 6/1/2025

On June 1, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field in what shapes up to be a crucial matchup for both teams. The Mets are enjoying a strong season with a record of 36-22, while the Rockies are struggling at a dismal 9-49. This will be the third game in the series, with the Mets taking the first two contests. Notably, the Mets' starting pitcher, Clay Holmes, has been solid this year, posting an impressive ERA of 2.98.

Today's game features a clear pitching mismatch. Clay Holmes, currently ranked as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, is set to face Carson Palmquist, who has had a rough start to the season, with an ERA of 8.78 over just three starts. Holmes has shown consistency, winning 5 games while only losing 3, and projecting to allow only 1.8 earned runs today, which is elite. In contrast, Palmquist has a winless record and projects to give up 3.0 earned runs on average.

The Mets' offense ranks 9th best in MLB, whereas the Rockies sit at 29th, indicating a stark contrast in offensive capabilities. The Rockies' struggles are accentuated by their low home run output, ranked 28th in the league. Additionally, Palmquist's high walk rate (12.1 BB%) against the Mets' patient hitters, who have the 6th most walks drawn in MLB, could lead to a challenging outing for him.

The projections favor the Mets heavily and suggest a very high implied team total of 5.26 runs. With the Rockies' offensive woes and the favorable matchup for Holmes, bettors may find it hard to overlook the Mets as significant favorites in this clash.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The New York Mets have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Carson Palmquist in this game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball hitters like Mickey Moniak generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Clay Holmes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Brenton Doyle hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Clay Holmes turned in a great performance in his previous start and conceded 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Starling Marte has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 6.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Collectively, New York Mets batters have struggled as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing 5th-worst in MLB.

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 55 games (+16.87 Units / 26% ROI)
• Tyrone Taylor has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.20 Units / 35% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.19, New York Mets 5.02

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carson Palmquist - Rockies
  • Clay Holmes - Mets

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