Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 6/4/2025

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on June 4, 2025, they find themselves far from contention, sporting a dismal record of 19-42. The Tigers, in sharp contrast, are thriving with a 40-22 record, showcasing their strength in the American League Central. Notably, the White Sox secured an 8-1 victory over the Tigers in their previous matchup yesterday, adding a glimmer of hope to an otherwise bleak season.

On the mound, the matchup features Jared Shuster for the White Sox and Sawyer Gipson-Long for the Tigers. Shuster, projected to pitch just 3.0 innings today, has struggled this season, with a troubling 6.14 ERA and ranking as the 285th best starting pitcher in MLB. In his last outing on September 18, 2024, he managed 3 innings with no earned runs. However, his projections suggest he might be better than his numbers indicate, as his 4.57 xFIP points to some bad luck.

Gipson-Long, on the other hand, is also facing challenges, though he has been slightly more effective, projected to pitch 4.7 innings with a 2.1 earned run average. Despite being assessed as one of the worst pitchers in MLB, he has a better matchup against a struggling White Sox offense that ranks 29th in both team batting average and home runs this season.

The Tigers boast the 7th best offense in MLB. This disparity between the two lineups could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of today's game, especially with the Tigers' heavy betting favorite status reflected in their -190 moneyline. The Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, indicating a close matchup, but the projections suggest the Tigers could pull away with a high team total of 4.89 runs against Shuster's lackluster performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Sawyer Gipson-Long to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 76 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Wenceel Perez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Spencer Torkelson pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Detroit Tigers have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jared Shuster in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Luis Robert Jr. has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph dropping to 79-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Korey Lee (the White Sox's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 39 games (+9.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 53 games (+12.75 Units / 17% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.93, Chicago White Sox 3.71

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sawyer Gipson-Long - Tigers
  • Jared Shuster - White Sox

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