Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 5/31/2025

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face off against the Detroit Tigers on May 31, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the American League Central. The Royals, with a record of 30-28, are having an above-average season but remain 8 games behind the division-leading Tigers, who sit at 38-20 and are enjoying a great campaign. In their previous matchup, the Tigers emerged victorious, continuing their strong play.

Michael Wacha is projected to take the mound for the Royals, bringing a solid ERA of 3.21 this season. However, his 4.32 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate thus far, and he faces a tough challenge against the Tigers’ potent lineup. Wacha’s low strikeout rate of 17.0% could be a concern, especially since he’s up against a Tigers offense that ranks 8th in the league. The projections indicate that Wacha is likely to pitch around 5.3 innings while allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.4 hits per game could be problematic.

On the other side, Tarik Skubal, the 1st ranked starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, boasts an impressive 2.49 ERA and has a favorable matchup against a Royals offense that ranks 26th overall. Skubal’s ability to strike out batters at a rate of 35.0% could play a significant role in this game, especially since the Royals have the 2nd lowest strikeout rate in the league. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.9 innings and allow just 2.1 earned runs.

With the Tigers favored heavily in this matchup, the Royals will need to capitalize on any opportunities, especially given their low implied team total of 3.26 runs. Fans can expect a competitive game as both teams look to assert their dominance in the series.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's 97.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 98th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the past two weeks, Gleyber Torres's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Projected catcher Jake Rogers projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #30 HR venue in MLB in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 105.4-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 7.1% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals makes them the #27 squad in MLB this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 47 games (+23.20 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 58 games (+18.48 Units / 28% ROI)
• Wenceel Perez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.91, Kansas City Royals 3.62

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

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