Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 6/1/2025

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on June 1, 2025, both teams enter this critical American League Central matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Royals sit at 31-28, enjoying an above-average season, while the Tigers have surged ahead with a record of 38-21, solidifying their spot as one of the league's top teams. This game marks the third in their series, with the Royals having edged the Tigers in a tight contest yesterday, winning 1-0.

Projected starters Kris Bubic and Keider Montero represent a significant contrast in performance. Bubic, the Royals' left-handed pitcher, has been a standout this season, ranking as the 34th best starter in MLB according to advanced metrics. His excellent ERA of 1.45 and solid strikeout rate (26.1% K%) position him favorably against a high-strikeout Tigers lineup that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts. On the other hand, Montero has struggled, being among the worst pitchers in the league with an average ERA of 4.54.

Offensively, the Royals' batting ranks 26th in MLB, a clear weakness that contrasts sharply with the Tigers' 8th-best ranking. Despite these differences, the Royals have an implied team total of 4.31 runs, suggesting that their offense might find a way to capitalize on Montero's control issues, as he has a high walk rate of 9.7% this season.

With the Royals favored at -145 odds, their strong pitching could very well tilt the game in their favor, especially against a Tigers lineup that may struggle with Bubic’s strikeout capabilities. As both teams aim to secure a vital win, the dynamics of pitching and offensive performance will be critical in deciding the outcome.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Keider Montero's sinker percentage has risen by 14% from last season to this one (7.7% to 21.7%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Spencer Torkelson has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 100.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jake Rogers, the Tigers's expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all SPs, Kris Bubic's fastball velocity of 91.8 mph grades out in the 23rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Michael Massey is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Detroit (#2-worst on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The 7.1% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals ranks them as the #27 team in baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 51 games (+23.30 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 56 games (+13.88 Units / 22% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.70 Units / 27% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.28, Kansas City Royals 5.03

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keider Montero - Tigers
  • Kris Bubic - Royals

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.