Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 6/4/2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Houston Astros on June 4, 2025, in what marks the second game of their interleague series. The Pirates are struggling this season with a record of 22-39, while the Astros are faring better at 33-27. This matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Michael Burrows for Pittsburgh and Ryan Gusto for Houston.

In their previous game, the Astros secured a victory against the Pirates, adding to the latter's woes. Burrows has had a rough start to the year, maintaining an 0-1 record with a dismal 8.64 ERA, making him one of the least effective starters in Major League Baseball this season, ranked 197th out of approximately 350 pitchers. Although he has a 5.40 xFIP, suggesting some unfortunate luck, his projections indicate he may only last around 4.7 innings, giving up an average of 2.7 earned runs and 5.1 hits.

On the other side, Gusto enters the game with a 4.62 ERA and a 3-2 record. Though his numbers are average, he has a better chance of handling the weak Pirates lineup. Notably, the Pirates rank 27th in offensive performance and 29th in home runs, underscoring their struggles at the plate. Houston's offense, while merely average overall at 13th, boasts a 9th ranking in batting average, which could exploit Burrows' deficiencies.

Given the current odds, the Pirates are positioned as underdogs with an implied team total of 4.19 runs, while the Astros are favored with a high implied team total of 4.81 runs. Despite Burrows' low strikeout rate and the Pirates' limited power, the game total sits at a relatively high 9.0 runs, indicating a potential for offensive output from the Astros. The Pirates will need a significant turnaround to challenge the Astros effectively in this matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Among all SPs, Ryan Gusto's fastball spin rate of 2444 rpm ranks in the 87th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the last 7 days, Victor Caratini's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 15.1° angle is among the highest in the game this year (#7 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mike Burrows is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Oneil Cruz has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 97.3-mph average to last year's 95.3-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+10.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 58 games (+8.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.60 Units / 50% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 5.21, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.13

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Gusto - Astros
  • Michael Burrows - Pirates

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