Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 6/6/2025

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on June 6, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The White Sox, with a disappointing record of 20-43, are struggling significantly this season, while the Royals boast a much healthier 33-30 record and are performing above average.

In their most recent outing, the Royals managed to secure a win, further solidifying their standing in the American League Central. The matchup today features Davis Martin on the mound for the White Sox, who has had a rough season, currently ranked as the 292nd best starting pitcher in MLB, which places him among the bottom tier of pitchers. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.67, his underlying metrics suggest he may not be able to maintain this level of performance. Martin projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs, but with a troubling 5.7 hits allowed per game, he faces a challenging task against the Royals' lineup.

On the other hand, Seth Lugo takes the hill for Kansas City. He has a solid ERA of 3.45 and projects to pitch 6.0 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs. Although Lugo is considered below average overall, his performance has been more consistent than Martin's this season.

The White Sox offense ranks 28th in MLB, which is a significant concern, particularly against a Royals team that, despite its own struggles, ranks higher in batting average at 13th. With the game total set at 8.0 runs, the odds favor the Royals, who have a higher implied team total of 4.49 runs compared to the White Sox's low 3.51. Given the current trends and matchups, this game presents an opportunity for the Royals to capitalize on their advantages and extend their winning streak.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has gone to his curveball 5.2% less often this season (21.1%) than he did last season (26.3%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Michael Massey is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#1-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Chicago White Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Josh Rojas has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 5.7% rate last season has decreased to 0% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Timothy Elko, Kyle Teel, Luis Robert Jr.).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 50 games (+19.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• Mike Tauchman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+7.20 Units / 103% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.19, Chicago White Sox 4.16

• Date: June 6, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Davis Martin - White Sox

Get daily MLB picks here.