Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 6/8/2025

As the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals prepare to face off on June 8, 2025, the stakes are low for both sides, as neither team is in contention for a playoff spot this season. The White Sox currently sit at 22-43, reflecting a disappointing campaign, while the Royals hold a slightly better record at 33-32, indicating an average season thus far.

Mike Vasil is projected to take the mound for the White Sox, and while he has a solid ERA of 1.89 this year, he sits at #246 in advanced-stat Power Rankings among starting pitchers. His high groundball rate might play well against a Royals lineup that struggles with power, as they have hit the fewest home runs in the league. Vasil's high walk rate could be a concern, especially against a Royals offense that rarely takes walks.

On the other side, Michael Lorenzen, who has struggled with a 5.12 ERA and a 3-6 record this season, will look to stabilize his performance. The projections suggest he will pitch about 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and while he has been unlucky this season, the White Sox's lack of power could play into his favor.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup looks like it could be a low-scoring affair, especially given both teams’ offensive rankings. The White Sox are currently an underdog at +135, while the Royals, favored at -155, have an implied team total of 4.94 runs, indicating that oddsmakers expect them to capitalize on Chicago's struggles.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

In his last outing, Michael Lorenzen was on point and put up 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Extreme groundball hitters like Salvador Perez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryse Wilson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 6.9% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals grades them out as the #29 team in MLB this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Mike Vasil is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #5 HR venue in the league — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Luis Robert Jr. is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Joshua Palacios has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 31 games at home (+12.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+15.75 Units / 34% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 30% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.41, Chicago White Sox 4.68

• Date: June 8, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • Mike Vasil - White Sox

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.