Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 5/25/2025

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on May 25, 2025, both teams are vying for position in the American League Central. The Twins currently hold a record of 29-22, while the Royals sit slightly behind at 28-25, both showcasing strong seasons thus far. Notably, the Twins' pitching has been a strong point, backed by a bullpen ranked 3rd best in MLB, while the Royals' bullpen ranks 11th.

In their last matchup, the Twins edged out the Royals, continuing a competitive series. The Twins are projected to start right-hander Bailey Ober, who has a solid 4-1 record with a respectable ERA of 3.68 this season. However, Ober's 4.37 xFIP suggests he might have had some luck on his side, indicating potential regression. Competing against him will be Royals left-hander Kris Bubic, who boasts an impressive 5-2 record and an excellent ERA of 1.47. Despite his success, Bubic's 3.48 xFIP indicates he, too, may face challenges going forward.

Both offenses have struggled in certain areas, with the Twins ranking 21st in overall offensive production, while the Royals are ranked 26th. The projections suggest this matchup could favor Ober, especially since he is facing a Royals offense that has the 1st fewest home runs in MLB this season. However, Ober's low strikeout rate could play into the hands of a Royals lineup that is also not prone to striking out.

With a game total set at 7.5 runs, the betting lines reflect a close contest, as the Twins hold a slightly more favorable moneyline at -120. All eyes will be on Ober and Bubic as they take the mound, promising an intriguing battle on the diamond at Target Field.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Kris Bubic has been lucky this year, notching a 1.47 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.93 — a 2.46 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cavan Biggio hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's 90-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.7-mph fall off from last year's 91.7-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Royce Lewis has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Minnesota's 11.5° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most groundball-inducing in the league this year: #25 overall.

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+12.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 49 games (+23.10 Units / 41% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.3, Minnesota Twins 3.85

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kris Bubic - Royals
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

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