Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 6/3/2025

On June 3, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Los Angeles Angels at Fenway Park in a matchup between two teams struggling to find their rhythm this season. The Red Sox sit at 29-33, while the Angels are slightly behind at 27-32. Both clubs are having below-average seasons and are in search of momentum as they continue their series.

In their previous game, the Red Sox fell short against the Angels, but they remain the betting favorites with a current moneyline of -140. The projections suggest a high implied team total of 4.81 runs for Boston, which is ed by their 8th-ranked offense in the league this season. The Red Sox also rank 9th in team batting average and home runs, showcasing their offensive potential.

On the mound, Boston is projected to start Brayan Bello, who has a solid ERA of 3.83 this year. Though his 4.47 xFIP indicates he might have been somewhat fortunate, his ability to keep the ball on the ground (53% groundball rate) could be an asset against an Angels offense that thrives on power, ranking 3rd in home runs. Bello’s low strikeout rate of 16.1% could work in his favor, as he faces a high-strikeout Angels lineup that ranks 2nd in the league for strikeouts.

For Los Angeles, Yusei Kikuchi takes the mound with a strong ERA of 3.06 but a concerning xFIP of 4.66, which suggests regression is likely. The Angels' offense, despite being 22nd overall, ranks impressively for home runs but struggles significantly in batting average, currently 27th in the league. As the Angels look to build on their last win, Kikuchi's ability to limit runs will be vital against a potent Red Sox lineup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Yusei Kikuchi's fastball spin rate has fallen 110 rpm this year (2179 rpm) below where it was last season (2289 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Logan O'Hoppe is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jo Adell, Logan O'Hoppe, Mike Trout, Scott Kingery).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Brayan Bello (50.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Los Angeles's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Carlos Narvaez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 94.7-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+5.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)
• Luis Rengifo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.30 Units / 62% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.28, Boston Red Sox 4.95

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Angels
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.