Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 5/30/2025

On May 30, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Los Angeles Angels at Progressive Field in what marks the opening game of their series. The Guardians enter this matchup with a 30-25 record, showcasing an above-average season, while the Angels sit at 25-30, struggling to find their footing with a below-average record. Both teams are looking to capitalize on this game to gain momentum.

Cleveland's Luis Ortiz is projected to take the mound, sporting a 2-5 record and a 4.73 ERA this season. While Ortiz has been average overall, his 3.82 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. Today, he is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters. However, he faces a challenge against the Angels' offense, which has been inconsistent, ranking 24th overall in MLB.

Jose Soriano, on the other hand, will start for Los Angeles. With a 3-5 record and a solid 3.73 ERA, Soriano's performance has been commendable, placing him as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB. He is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs but struggling with a below-average strikeout rate of 4.0.

Cleveland's offense ranks 22nd in MLB, while Los Angeles sits at 24th, indicating both teams have room for improvement. Despite their low rankings, the Guardians have a projected team total of 4.29 runs, highlighting them as the favorites in this matchup with a moneyline of -145. The Angels, with a lower implied team total of 3.71 runs, will need to find a way to capitalize on Ortiz's control issues if they want to pull off an upset. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a competitive contest ahead.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Considering that groundball hitters hold a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Jose Soriano and his 56.3% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in this game squaring off against 3 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Zach Neto has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.5-mph average to last season's 94.5-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis L. Ortiz has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 8.7% more often this season (54.8%) than he did last year (46.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Kyle Manzardo is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 away games (+8.50 Units / 65% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 away games (+8.85 Units / 84% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.29, Cleveland Guardians 4.32

• Date: May 30, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians

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