Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 5/31/2025

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Los Angeles Angels on May 31, 2025, in a matchup that has significant implications for both teams. Currently, the Guardians hold a record of 30-26, sitting above .500 and looking to solidify their position in the American League, while the Angels are struggling at 26-30, well below expectations.

On the mound, the Guardians are projected to start Slade Cecconi, who has had a mixed season thus far, with a 1-1 record and a commendable ERA of 3.27. Despite being ranked 135th among starting pitchers, Cecconi's advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, with a lower xFIP of 2.63. His high strikeout rate of 31.1% could pose problems for an Angels lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 2nd in MLB in that category.

Conversely, the Angels will counter with Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled this season, posting a 2-6 record with an ERA of 5.23. Hendricks’s low strikeout rate of 3.4 projected strikeouts per game is worrisome, especially against a Guardians offense that, while ranked 22nd overall, has shown flashes of power with a 15th ranking in home runs.

The Guardians are favored with a moneyline of -185, reflecting a solid chance to improve their record against a struggling Angels team, which has the 24th ranked offense overall. With an implied team total of 4.57 runs, the Guardians seem poised to continue their upward trajectory, while the Angels' prospects look dim with a low implied total of 3.43 runs. This game promises to be a pivotal moment for both teams as they look to shift the balance of their seasons.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Kyle Hendricks's fastball velocity has dropped 1.9 mph this season (85.6 mph) below where it was last season (87.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Luis Rengifo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Considering that groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Slade Cecconi (38.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Jones has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 away games (+11.70 Units / 98% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.89, Cleveland Guardians 4.39

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels
  • Slade Cecconi - Guardians

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