Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 5/26/2025

On May 26, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Progressive Field in a highly anticipated Interleague matchup. The Guardians are currently 29-23, enjoying a solid season, while the Dodgers boast an impressive 32-21 record, marking them as one of the elite teams in baseball. This game holds significance as it is the first in a series between these two clubs, adding to the excitement.

Gavin Williams is projected to take the mound for the Guardians. Williams has been a reliable option, posting a 4-2 record with a respectable 3.94 ERA this season. However, he has struggled with control, holding a high walk rate of 12.4%, which could be problematic against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB in drawing walks. Williams's performance has been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his xERA of 4.75, suggesting he might not sustain his current success.

Opposing him will be the Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been nothing short of outstanding with a 1.86 ERA and a 5-3 record. Yamamoto is currently ranked 4th among MLB starters, showcasing elite skills on the mound. His projections indicate he will pitch an average of 6.0 innings, allowing just 1.9 earned runs, which is a significant advantage for the Dodgers.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 23rd in MLB, struggling to generate consistent runs, while the Dodgers' offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 2nd overall and leading the league in batting average. The Guardians’ projected team total of 3.51 runs reflects their offensive challenges.

With the Guardians as sizable underdogs, the matchup heavily favors the Dodgers, especially considering the Guardians' recent struggles against top-tier pitching. However, with the Guardians' strong bullpen ranked 5th in MLB, they may have a chance if they can limit the damage early.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This season, Shohei Ohtani has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 102.2 mph compared to last year's 99 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in of overall hitting ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all SPs, Gavin Williams's fastball velocity of 96.3 mph is in the 94th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Ramirez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen profiles as the 6th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 34 games (+2.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.69, Cleveland Guardians 3.29

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.