Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 5/27/2025

On May 27, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Progressive Field in a pivotal Interleague matchup. The Guardians are currently sitting with a record of 29-24, performing above average this season, while the Dodgers boast an impressive 33-21 record, marking them as one of the top contenders in MLB. In their previous game, the Dodgers secured a solid victory against the Guardians, which may give them momentum heading into this contest.

Cleveland's Tanner Bibee is projected to start, and while he holds a respectable ERA of 3.57, his xFIP of 4.42 suggests he may have experienced some good fortune this season. Bibee has been a high-flyball pitcher, which could be problematic against a powerful Dodgers lineup that has already hit 84 home runs, the 2nd most in MLB. This matchup could favor the Dodgers, especially given Bibee's tendency to allow more fly balls.

Dustin May, starting for the Dodgers, has had a slightly rougher year with a 4.09 ERA and a 2-4 record. However, the projections indicate he will likely perform well against a Guardians offense that ranks 24th overall and struggles significantly in batting average, coming in at 25th. May's ability to limit runs could be crucial in this game.

The Guardians' bullpen ranks 6th in MLB, which could provide a late-game advantage if the starters keep the game close. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' bullpen is ranked 15th, an average showing that may be tested against Cleveland's better hitters. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, bettors might find value in the Guardians, who are currently at +115 on the moneyline, indicating they could have a better chance than the odds reflect.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Dustin May (47% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 GB hitters in Cleveland's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Tommy Edman is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee's slider rate has jumped by 8.1% from last year to this one (7% to 15.1%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Checking in at the 97th percentile for base-stealing, Jose Ramirez has average 42 swipes per 600 plate appearances this year.

• Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Bo Naylor (the Guardians's expected catcher in today's game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.50 Units / 64% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.91, Cleveland Guardians 4.43

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dustin May - Dodgers
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.