Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Pick – 5/27/2025

On May 27, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Miami Marlins at Petco Park for the second game of their series. Both teams are coming off different trajectories, with the Padres sitting at a strong 30-22 this season and the Marlins struggling at 21-31. The Padres' impressive start has been bolstered by their #3 ranked bullpen, a key asset against the Marlins, who rank #26 in that category.

In their previous matchup, the Padres' pitching was on full display, and they are projected to send Stephen Kolek to the mound today. Kolek has had a good season thus far, despite ranking as the #178 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced projections. His excellent ERA of 2.84 suggests he has been lucky, but he still projects to manage a solid outing, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs. However, he will need to improve on his average of 5.6 hits and 1.4 walks allowed per game if he hopes to keep Miami’s offense in check.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Max Meyer, who has shown some promise with a #88 ranking among starting pitchers and a more favorable 3.03 xFIP suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky this year. Meyer’s ability to generate strikeouts will be tested against the Padres’ low-strikeout offense, which could tilt the advantage toward San Diego if he struggles to capitalize on that strength.

Betting lines favor the Padres significantly, with a moneyline of -185, implying a win probability of 63%. Given their strong overall performance this season and the statistical advantages they hold, the Padres appear poised to secure another victory against the Marlins today.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Max Meyer is expected to ring up an average of 17 outs in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Kyle Stowers has big-time power (91st percentile) if he makes , but that's never a guarantee (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Stephen Kolek has a pitch-to- profile (12th percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make , which is often hard, home-run .

Eric Wagaman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Stephen Kolek's high usage percentage of his fastball (56.5% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Jake Cronenworth is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The San Diego Padres (17.9 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.93, San Diego Padres 4.48

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Meyer - Marlins
  • Stephen Kolek - Padres

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