Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 5/28/2025

The San Diego Padres will host the Miami Marlins on May 28, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Petco Park. The Padres currently sit at 31-22, well above .500 and showing signs of being a competitive team this season. In stark contrast, the Marlins are struggling at 21-32, indicating a tough road ahead for them. Last night, the Padres secured a decisive victory over the Marlins, further highlighting the gap in their current form.

On the mound, the Padres will send out Kyle Hart, a left-handed pitcher whose season has been marked by inconsistency. Hart’s 2-2 record and an ERA of 6.00 reflect a season of challenges, although his 4.88 xFIP suggests that he might have been somewhat unlucky. He projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today while allowing around 2.5 earned runs, which is certainly manageable but not ideal. His ability to limit walks (1.3 projected) will be vital as he faces off against the Miami offense that, although average overall, is ranked 24th in home runs.

Opposing him will be Sandy Alcantara, a right-handed pitcher who brings a different challenge. Despite a poor 2-7 record and an alarming ERA of 8.04, Alcantara ranks as the 42nd best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics. He projects to pitch 6.2 innings and allow just 2.7 earned runs, which could give Miami a fighting chance if he can keep the Padres’ offense, ranked 15th in the league, in check.

With the Padres favored at -165, their projected total of 4.71 runs indicates confidence in their offensive capabilities. In the context of the game, it’s worth noting that while both teams have had their struggles, the Padres' strong bullpen—ranked 2nd overall—further tilts the scales in their favor as they seek to maintain momentum in this series.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all SPs, Sandy Alcantara's fastball velocity of 96.7 mph grades out in the 97th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Otto Lopez's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 88-mph figure last year has decreased to 85.7-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Considering that groundball batters have a substantial advantage over flyball pitchers, Kyle Hart and his 35.5% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in today's outing being matched up with 4 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jake Cronenworth has been unlucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .241 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .276 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.25 Units / 89% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.47, San Diego Padres 4.13

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins
  • Kyle Hart - Padres

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