Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 4/21/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
• Run Line: Brewers 1.5 -155, Cardinals -1.5 135
• Money Line: Brewers 140, Cardinals -160
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 40%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 60%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 34.66%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 65.34%

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League Central matchup, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium on April 21, 2024. The Cardinals are facing a tough season with a 9-12 record, while the Brewers are having a great season with a 13-6 record. The Cardinals will look to turn things around as they take on the Brewers.

On the mound, the Cardinals are projected to start the talented right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray. Gray has been impressive this season with a 2-0 record and a perfect 0.00 ERA. However, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, his 2.74 xFIP suggests that he may not perform as well going forward. On the other side, the Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Colin Rea, who has also been solid with a 2-0 record and a 2.70 ERA.

The Cardinals have struggled offensively this season, ranking as the 25th best team in MLB. However, their team batting average of 7th and their ranking of 5th in team home runs indicate some underlying talent. The Brewers, on the other hand, have one of the best offenses in the league, ranking 2nd overall. Although their team batting average of 27th may be a misleading stat, their 10th ranking in team stolen bases indicates their ability to create scoring opportunities.

Considering that Gray is a low-walk pitcher and the Brewers have a high-walk offense, Gray's control issues may neutralize one of the Brewers' strengths. This could give the Cardinals an advantage in the matchup.

In their last game on April 20, the Cardinals faced the Brewers and lost by a score of 12-5. In that game, the Brewers had a closing Moneyline price of +115, implying a win probability of 45%. The Cardinals had a closing Moneyline price of -135, implying a win probability of 55%. Despite the loss, the close odds suggest that it was expected to be a competitive game.

Based on the current odds, the Cardinals are the favorites with a moneyline of -160, implying a win probability of 60%. The Brewers are the underdogs with a moneyline of +140, implying a win probability of 40%. However, THE BAT X projects the Cardinals as a bigger favorite with a win probability of 65%, suggesting potential betting value in favor of the Cardinals.

With a Game Total of 7.5 runs, it is expected to be a low-scoring game. THE BAT X projects the Cardinals to score an average of 4.32 runs, while the Brewers are projected to score an average of 3.27 runs.

As the game approaches, keep an eye on the Cardinals' Brendan Donovan, who has been their best hitter this season, and the Brewers' William Contreras, who has been their standout player. Both players have made significant contributions to their respective teams offensively.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Colin Rea is projected to strikeout 3.8 bats in today's matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Rhys Hoskins has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray has relied on his cutter 8.2% more often this season (21.3%) than he did last season (13.1%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Cracking 3 home runs in the last two weeks, Nolan Gorman has been on fire of late.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.08 Units / 17% ROI)
• Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)

Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction: Brewers 3.25 - Cardinals 4.31

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