Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 5/24/2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Milwaukee Brewers at PNC Park on May 24, 2025, in the third game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Pirates holding a record of 18-34 and the Brewers at 25-27. Both offenses have not been lighting up the scoreboard, ranking 29th and 25th respectively in MLB. However, the Pirates remain an intriguing matchup, as they have a strong stolen base ranking, sitting 6th overall.

Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller will be looking to improve on his 1-6 record today. Despite his struggles, Keller boasts a respectable ERA of 3.88, though projections suggest he’s been a bit fortunate, with a higher expected ERA of 4.45. Keller is projected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs while striking out an average of 4.6 batters, which isn’t stellar.

On the other side of the mound, Quinn Priester will take the hill for Milwaukee. Priester holds a 1-2 record with an ERA of 4.66, but his advanced metrics indicate a tendency toward regression. He has a SIERA of 5.23, suggesting he may struggle against even a below-average Pirates offense that lacks power, with only 36 home runs this season.

Betting markets see this matchup as a close contest, with both teams having moneylines set at -110. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating moderate expectations for scoring. While both teams have their issues, the Pirates might have a slight edge today if Keller can perform closer to his ERA than his projections suggest.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Quinn Priester in the 8th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Sal Frelick is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 6.2% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #30 group of hitters in the majors this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's 93.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph drop off from last season's 94.5-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Oneil Cruz has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.3-mph to 100.4-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Joey Bart is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.5% rate (85th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 43 games (+6.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+16.00 Units / 178% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.05, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.47

• Date: May 24, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

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