Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 5/31/2025

On May 31, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Minnesota Twins at T-Mobile Park for the second game of their series. The Twins enter today's play at 31-25, while the Mariners stand at 30-26. While both teams are having above-average seasons, a closer look reveals distinct strengths and weaknesses that may tilt the odds in favor of the Mariners.

In the previous matchup, Seattle fell short against Minnesota, but Bryce Miller, their projected starter, may have a chance to rebound. Despite a challenging season with a 2-4 record and an ERA of 5.22, Miller's 4.59 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky and could be poised for a better outing. The Twins' offense, ranking 23rd in MLB, has struggled significantly this season, which could play into Miller's hands, especially given his tendency to walk batters is somewhat mitigated by Minnesota's low-walk approach.

On the other side, Bailey Ober has been a bright spot for the Twins, boasting a solid 4-1 record with a strong ERA of 3.41. However, he has a tendency for fly balls (43% FB rate) that could be detrimental against the Mariners, who rank 6th in MLB for home runs with 73 this season. This dynamic sets up an intriguing battle, as Seattle's power-hitting capabilities could capitalize on Ober's flyball tendencies.

Despite the Mariners' low implied team total of 3.50 runs, the projections suggest they could outperform these odds, especially with their offense ranking 11th in MLB overall. With the game total set at just 7.0 runs, expectations are low, making any offensive fireworks from the Mariners particularly impactful. As they look to bounce back, the stage is set for Seattle to leverage their power and exploit the vulnerabilities in the Twins' lineup.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober has gone to his slider 13.6% more often this season (25.5%) than he did last year (11.9%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trevor Larnach stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Positioned 6th-lowest in MLB this year, Minnesota Twins batters as a group have posted a 11.5° launch angle (a reliable metric to measure the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this season (93.8 mph) below where it was last year (95.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball bats like Jorge Polanco usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Seattle Mariners bats collectively rank 4th- in baseball for power this year when using their 10.7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+11.65 Units / 33% ROI)
• Byron Buxton has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 50% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.65, Seattle Mariners 3.76

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

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