Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 5/27/2025

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Minnesota Twins at George M. Steinbrenner Field on May 27, 2025, in the second game of this series. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Rays sitting at 27-26 and the Twins at 29-24. Tampa Bay's offense has struggled this season, ranking 23rd in MLB, while the Twins are similarly lackluster, ranking 20th. However, both teams are keen to improve their standings, especially the Rays, who are looking to gain traction in a competitive American League.

In their previous matchup, the Rays defeated the Twins, and they will look keep their current six-game winning streak alive behind starting pitcher Taj Bradley. Despite having an average year with a 4.61 ERA, Bradley’s 3.49 xERA suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, hinting that better performances could be on the horizon. His ability to strike out 5.4 batters and allow just 2.8 earned runs per outing keeps him competitive, although he has struggled with walks.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with Joe Ryan, who has been exceptional with a 2.68 ERA, ranking him as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections indicate he will pitch around 5.8 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters. Ryan's strong performance stands out against a Rays lineup that has shown inconsistency.

The moneyline currently favors the Twins at -125, with an implied team total of 4.40 runs, compared to the Rays' +105 moneyline and an average implied total of 4.10 runs. With both teams vying for a win, this matchup promises to be tightly contested, especially given the projections that favor Joe Ryan’s elite status on the mound against an average Rays offense.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's higher usage rate of his fastball this year (65.7 compared to 54.4% last year) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Harrison Bader pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 7th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all starting pitchers, Taj Bradley's fastball velocity of 95.6 mph is in the 86th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be smart to expect better results for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+13.80 Units / 28% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.75, Tampa Bay Rays 4.29

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

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