New York Mets at San Francisco Giants Prediction For 4/24/2024

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Blake Snell - Giants
• Run Line: Mets 1.5 -185, Giants -1.5 160
• Money Line: Mets 110, Giants -130
• Total (Over/Under): 8

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 46%
• San Francisco Giants - 54%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 40.81%
• San Francisco Giants - 59.19%

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup, the San Francisco Giants will host the New York Mets at Oracle Park on April 24, 2024. The Giants, with a record of 12-13, are having a below-average season, while the Mets, with a record of 12-11, are performing above average.

The Giants will send left-handed pitcher Blake Snell to the mound, who is ranked as the #39 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Snell has started three games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 11.57. However, his 3.72 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Mets will start left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea, who is considered an average pitcher. Manaea has started four games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.12. His 5.80 xERA indicates that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future, although his 3.56 FIP suggests he has been unlucky and could improve.

The Giants offense ranks as the 17th best in MLB this season, while the Mets offense ranks 11th. The Giants have struggled with team batting average, ranking 21st, but have an average ranking in team home runs (19th). However, they rank 29th in team stolen bases. The Mets have an average ranking in all these categories.

According to the current odds, the Giants have an average implied team total of 4.23 runs, while the Mets have an average implied team total of 3.77 runs. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average.

In their last game, the Giants played against an unknown opponent, and the Mets played against an unknown opponent. However, the Giants' best hitter over the last seven games has been Patrick Bailey, who has recorded six hits, one home run, and one stolen base, with a batting average of .429 and an OPS of 1.357. The Mets' best hitter over the last seven games has been Starling Marte, who has recorded seven hits, five runs, eight RBIs, two home runs, and three stolen bases, with a batting average of .333 and an OPS of 1.000.

With the Giants being the home team, they are favored in this matchup, with a moneyline set at -135 and an implied win probability of 55%. The Mets have a moneyline of +115 and an implied win probability of 45%. The betting markets expect a close game.

Overall, the Giants have the advantage in of pitching with Blake Snell projected to have a solid outing. However, the Mets have a slightly stronger offense. It should be an intriguing matchup between these two teams.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea's fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (91.7 mph) below where it was last season (92.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Blake Snell has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, tallying 4.3 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Wilmer Flores will hold the platoon advantage against Sean Manaea in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Austin Slater has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 56 of their last 85 games (+25.27 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)

Mets vs Giants Prediction: Mets 3.77 - Giants 4.33

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