New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 6/6/2025

On June 6, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the New York Mets at Coors Field in a National League matchup that highlights the stark contrast between two teams heading in different directions this season. The Rockies are struggling with a dismal record of 12-50, while the Mets are thriving at 39-24.

The Rockies are projected to start right-hander Antonio Senzatela, who has had a tough season thus far, holding a 1-10 record and a concerning ERA of 7.14. Despite his low walk rate, Senzatela's ability to limit runs has been inconsistent, and he projects to allow an average of 3.4 earned runs in 5.0 innings. On the other side, the Mets will counter with Kodai Senga, who has been one of the more effective pitchers in the league, boasting a 6-3 record and an impressive ERA of 1.60. The projections suggest that Senga will allow 2.9 earned runs over approximately 5.4 innings, providing a solid chance for the Mets to capitalize on the Rockies' struggles.

Offensively, the Rockies rank last in the league in multiple categories, including batting average and home runs, while the Mets rank 8th overall in offensive performance. This series opener sets the stage for Senga to take advantage of Colorado's weak lineup, especially considering that they have hit only 53 home runs this season, the 5th fewest in the league.

Betting lines reflect the mismatch, with the Rockies at +260 and an implied team total of just 3.85 runs, while the Mets are favored at -310 with a high implied total of 6.65 runs. Given Colorado's current form and the Mets' recent offensive display, this matchup heavily leans in favor of the visitors as they look to continue their winning ways.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kodai Senga must realize this, because he has used his secondary pitches a lot this year: 63.2% of the time, placing in the 92nd percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Positioned 4th-least steep in MLB this year, New York Mets hitters as a group have notched a 11.8° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced metric to study power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Antonio Senzatela's 2218-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 23rd percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Hunter Goodman has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .351 mark is a fair amount higher than his .273 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Colorado Rockies hitters tly have been among the worst in the majors this year ( 7th-worst) as far as their 89-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 61 games (+16.02 Units / 22% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+12.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jordan Beck has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+6.85 Units / 27% ROI)

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 6.32, Colorado Rockies 5.12

• Date: June 6, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kodai Senga - Mets
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies

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