New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 6/8/2025

The New York Mets, currently holding a solid 41-24 record, will look to extend their winning streak against the struggling Colorado Rockies, who sit at a dismal 12-52. This matchup at Coors Field on June 8, 2025, marks the third game in the series, and after a recent win, the Mets are demonstrating they’re a legitimate force in the National League, particularly against a Rockies team that has struggled all season.

In the previous meeting, the Mets showcased their offensive prowess, ranking 7th in MLB offensively for the year. Conversely, the Rockies’ offense ranks 29th in the league and appears desperate for a spark, especially considering they hold the lowest team batting average this season.

On the mound, the Rockies are set to start Chase Dollander, who has been less than effective this year, with a 6.26 ERA and a 2-5 record in his 9 starts. His underlying stats suggest some bad luck, but he still projects to pitch only 4.0 innings today. He'll face Tylor Megill, the Mets’ promising right-hander, who has a better 3.77 ERA and a higher strikeout rate. Megill's ability to induce strikeouts might prove pivotal against the Rockies, who have the highest strikeout rate in MLB.

With the Game Total set at a high 10.5 runs, the Rockies are significant underdogs, with a moneyline of +230. Meanwhile, the projections indicate a strong likelihood for the Mets to capitalize on their offensive prowess against a beleaguered Rockies pitching staff. This game promises to be a showcase of contrasting performances, with the Rockies desperate to turn their season around against a Mets team riding high.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill's 94.8-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 78th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best hitter in the majors.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Chase Dollander to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 74 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

As it relates to his batting average, Hunter Goodman has had positive variance on his side this year. His .282 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .213.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .320 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't ing for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+13.62 Units / 22% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+9.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.65 Units / 52% ROI)

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 6.76, Colorado Rockies 5.15

• Date: June 8, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tylor Megill - Mets
  • Chase Dollander - Rockies

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