New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 6/3/2025

On June 3, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Mets holding a narrow edge at 38-22 over the Dodgers’ 36-24 record. The stakes are high, especially as the Dodgers come off a hard-fought loss in the series opener.

The Dodgers will send out Clayton Kershaw, who has faced some challenges this season. With an ERA of 4.91 and a high walk rate of 12.8%, Kershaw struggles with control, which could be problematic against a patient Mets offense that ranks 6th in walks. However, Kershaw's experience and past success at home cannot be overlooked. The projections estimate he will go about 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs and striking out 4.1 batters.

Countering for the Mets will be Tylor Megill, who has shown solid form this season with a 3.52 ERA across 11 starts. However, he too has his issues, projecting to pitch only 4.7 innings and potentially yielding 2.7 earned runs. Both pitchers face offenses that are thriving, particularly the Dodgers, whose lineup is ranked 1st in both batting average and home runs this season—an impressive feat considering they are also the 2nd highest in walks drawn.

With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, oddsmakers list the Dodgers as the favorites with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied team total of 5.07 runs. The combination of Kershaw's experience and the potent Dodgers offense may give them an edge in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue in the league today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Typically, hitters like Starling Marte who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Clayton Kershaw.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Mets projected lineup grades out as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate today in of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The New York Mets have 7 batters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Clayton Kershaw in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Tommy Edman is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.70 Units / 46% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 35% ROI)

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.1, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.56

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tylor Megill - Mets
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers

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