New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 6/1/2025

On June 1, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Yankees at Dodger Stadium in what promises to be an electrifying Interleague matchup. Both teams come into this game strong, with the Dodgers holding a record of 36-22 and the Yankees closely behind at 35-22. The Dodgers’ previous game saw them notch a convincing victory, while the Yankees are looking to bounce back after their recent performances.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, ranked 4th among starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, is slated to take the mound for the Dodgers. With an impressive 1.97 ERA this season, he has shown remarkable skill, although his 2.65 xFIP suggests he might not maintain these stellar results indefinitely. Yamamoto projects to pitch around 5.7 innings today, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters, which should give the Dodgers an edge against a powerful Yankees offense.

Conversely, Ryan Yarbrough will be pitching for the Yankees. Despite a solid 3.06 ERA, he has been rated below average overall, projecting to pitch around 4.3 innings with a concerning average of 2.8 earned runs allowed. Given that Yarbrough is a high-flyball pitcher, the Dodgers, who excel in power hitting—ranking 1st in MLB with 94 home runs—could very well capitalize on this matchup.

The projections indicate a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, reflecting the offensive talent on both sides. With the Dodgers favored at a moneyline of -170, they are projected to score 5.05 runs, compared to the Yankees’ average of 3.95 runs. The Dodgers’ potent offense ranks as the 2nd best in MLB and is poised to take advantage of Yarbrough's vulnerabilities. This matchup could set the stage for an exciting game with significant implications for both teams as they vie for postseason positioning.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among all SPs, Ryan Yarbrough's fastball spin rate of 1887.5 rpm grades out in the 5th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Los Angeles's #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for DJ LeMahieu, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The New York Yankees bullpen projects as the 6th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #3 HR venue among all major league parks — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Andy Pages is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.72 Units / 22% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.05 Units / 28% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.52, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.61

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Yarbrough - Yankees
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

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