Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 6/6/2025

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 6, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from disappointing outings in their last games. The Pirates fell to the Houston Astros by a score of 8-2 the previous day, while the Phillies themselves suffered a 9-1 defeat to the Toronto Blue Jays. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and it highlights the stark contrast between the two teams' performances this season.

The Pirates sit at a dismal 23-40, struggling mightily with the 27th best offense in MLB and ranking 29th in home runs. Their best hitter has been a bright spot, boasting a .821 OPS and 12 home runs, but overall, the offensive output has been lackluster. On the mound, Bailey Falter, projected to start for the Pirates, brings a respectable 3.14 ERA this season, although his 4.61 xFIP suggests he may be due for regression. In his last start on May 31, Falter threw 6 scoreless innings, showing flashes of potential.

On the other hand, the Phillies, with a record of 37-25, feature a potent offense that ranks 6th in MLB and 5th in batting average. Their best hitter has an impressive .946 OPS and has contributed significantly to their success. Joe Ross, projected to start for Philadelphia, has struggled, carrying a 4.34 ERA and allowing 5 earned runs in his last outing. However, he benefits from facing a Pirates offense that has the 6th highest strikeout rate, which could work in his favor.

With the Pirates' current moneyline set at +115 and the Phillies at -135, betting markets indicate a competitive matchup. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive fireworks. This game could be pivotal for both teams as they look to turn their fortunes around.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Joe Ross will "start" for Philadelphia Phillies in today's matchup but will serve in the role of an opener and may not stay on the mound for more than a couple frames.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes , but that's usually a big "IF" (26.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bailey Falter is a pitch-to- type (24th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make , which is often hard, home-run .

Bryce Harper has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter's four-seamer usage has dropped by 5.9% from last season to this one (48.5% to 42.6%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Oneil Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 97.2-mph to 100.2-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.44 Units / 20% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+9.65 Units / 43% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.27, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.88

• Date: June 6, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ross - Phillies
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

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