Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 6/7/2025

The Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 7, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at PNC Park. The Phillies, currently holding a 37-26 record, are in the midst of a strong season, while the Pirates sit at a disappointing 24-40.

Projected starters for this game are Ranger Suarez for the Phillies and Andrew Heaney for the Pirates. Suarez has been exceptional this season, boasting a 4-0 record and a stellar 2.72 ERA. His performance has placed him among the top 10% of MLB pitchers, ranked 28th overall. Conversely, Andrew Heaney, with a 3-4 record and a 3.39 ERA, has been somewhat lucky this season, as his xFIP of 4.37 suggests he may regress moving forward.

The Pirates' offense has been struggling, ranking 27th in MLB, particularly in home runs where they sit 29th. Their inability to generate consistent power might be a significant disadvantage against a solid pitcher like Suarez, who excels at inducing ground balls (55% GB rate). While the Pirates have shown some speed on the bases, their overall offensive capabilities are a concern.

The Phillies' offense is performing well, ranking 8th in MLB and 7th in batting average. This trend underscores the disparity between these two teams as they meet for the second game of the series.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the Pirates are viewed as significant underdogs with a moneyline of +150, while the Phillies are favored at -170. Given the current projections and recent performances, the odds may favor a strong showing from Philadelphia as they look to continue their winning ways against Pittsburgh.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

From last season to this one, Johan Rojas's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 86.2 mph to 82.3 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Bryce Harper has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #26 HR venue in the league in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Typically, hitters like Tommy Pham who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Ranger Suarez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+6.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• Ranger Suarez has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.45 Units / 64% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.59, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.32

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.