Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 6/4/2025

On June 4, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an exciting interleague matchup. Both teams are performing well this season, with the Blue Jays holding a record of 31-29, while the Phillies boast an impressive 37-23 record.

The Blue Jays are currently projected to start right-hander Jose Berrios, who has had a mixed season, with a 3.86 ERA but concerning peripheral stats, including a 4.63 FIP. In contrast, the Phillies will send out Mick Abel, who has only started one game this year but has a perfect 0.00 ERA. However, the projections indicate that Berrios may be due for a regression, as he has been lucky thus far.

The matchup favors the Phillies slightly, especially considering their high-octane offense, which ranks 6th in the league. Berrios’s high walk rate (9.6 BB%) could spell trouble against the patient Phillies lineup, which ranks 4th in MLB in walks drawn.

With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs and both teams having an implied team total of 4.50 runs, bettors should pay close attention to the offensive capabilities on display. Despite Berrios's struggles with control, the Blue Jays' strong bullpen, ranked 8th in MLB, gives them a fighting chance in what is expected to be a tightly contested game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With 6 bats who share the same handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Mick Abel ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 43.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is inflated compared to his 30.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 13th-best batter in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios's fastball velocity has fallen 1.7 mph this season (91.8 mph) below where it was last year (93.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18.2 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 42 games (+8.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ernie Clement has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.48, Toronto Blue Jays 5.45

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mick Abel - Phillies
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

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