Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 6/5/2025

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on June 5, 2025, anticipation builds for this Interleague matchup. After a thrilling clash yesterday, where the Blue Jays edged the Phillies 2-1, both teams look to capitalize on this pivotal series that could impact their standings.

Currently, the Blue Jays sit at 32-29, performing above average this season, while the Phillies boast a strong 37-24 record, establishing themselves among the league's elite. The Blue Jays will have Chris Bassitt, who has been an average performer this season, projected to start, though he has struggled recently, having allowed a concerning 5 earned runs in his last outing, which was five innings long. In contrast, Jesus Luzardo takes the mound for the Phillies; he's shown promise, even if he endured a rough outing last time, allowing 12 runs in just three innings. However, Luzardo's advanced metrics, including a 2.68 FIP, suggest he may have been unlucky and recommend future improvement.

Both offenses present unique challenges. The Blue Jays rank 11th in MLB offense but have exhibited a powerful batting average, sitting 8th overall. Meanwhile, the Phillies' offense ranks 5th in MLB, including a standout 5th rank in batting average, indicating a high-caliber approach at the plate. Notably, both teams are projected to score around 4.00 runs, aligning with the game total set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average.

With strong performances expected from both pitchers, along with the close matchup reflected in betting lines (both teams at -110), this game is shaping up to be crucial for momentum as the summer months approach. Expect intense competition as these two teams vie for supremacy in this tightly contested series.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average starter, Jesus Luzardo has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 6.9 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Brandon Marsh has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 96.9-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Philadelphia Phillies bats as a group have been one of the best in baseball this year (8th-) in regard to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Due to his large platoon split, Chris Bassitt will be in a tough position matching up with 6 bats in the projected lineup who bat from the opposite side in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Davis Schneider is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.12, Toronto Blue Jays 4.77

• Date: June 5, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.