Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction – 5/13/2025

On May 13, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citi Field for the second game of their series. The Mets are riding high this season with a solid record of 27-15, while the Pirates find themselves struggling at 14-28. Both teams have suffered turbulent stretches, but the Mets are firmly positioned as one of the league's top contenders, ranking 4th in offensive talent according to advanced statistics.

In their last matchup, the Mets showcased their talent with a convincing victory over the Pirates, which has set the stage for this encounter. The Mets will start Kodai Senga, who has been a bright spot in their rotation, evidenced by his impressive 1.16 ERA and a respectable 4-2 win-loss record. Despite projections suggesting he will allow 2.1 earned runs in 5.6 innings, Senga’s ability to generate strikeouts—averaging 7.1 per game—may neutralize a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in the league.

Conversely, the Pirates will turn to Mitch Keller, who has struggled with a 4.40 ERA and a 1-4 record. While his xERA suggests he could improve, Keller faces a daunting task against a Mets lineup that ranks 8th in home runs and has an elite 7th ranking in batting average. The projections indicate that he will likely allow 3.2 earned runs over 5.7 innings pitched, which could prove detrimental.

With the Mets favored heavily at a moneyline of -245 and an implied team total of 4.53 runs, bettors should be cautious but optimistic, as the Mets' potent lineup appears well-equipped to exploit Keller's vulnerabilities while Senga delivers another strong performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this year (93.1 mph) below where it was last year (94.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Adam Frazier is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Andrew McCutchen hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Because groundball batters hold a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Kodai Senga and his 36.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in this game facing 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Batters such as Luisangel Acuna with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mitch Keller who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Mets projected batting order projects as the best on the slate today in of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+8.69 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 31 games (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 24% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.73, New York Mets 4.75

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Kodai Senga - Mets

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