San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 5/25/2025

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the San Diego Padres on May 25, 2025, both teams approach this matchup from contrasting recent performances and standings. Atlanta currently holds a record of 25-26, slightly underperforming, while San Diego boasts a more favorable 28-22 record, indicating a stronger season thus far, though the Braves did win on Saturday against San Diego.

Both projected starting pitchers, Spencer Schwellenbach and Dylan Cease, are reliable right-handers, each with 10 starts this season. Schwellenbach, ranked 28th in MLB Power Rankings among starters and holding a 3-3 record with a 3.52 ERA, has struggled with his peripheral stats, suggesting he may be due for a rough outing. He is a low-strikeout pitcher, which doesn’t bode well against a Padres offense that is incredibly adept at making , ranking 1st in MLB for least strikeouts.

On the other side, Cease, ranked 26th, has faced some misfortune, evident from his 1-3 record and 4.50 ERA. His xFIP suggests he's been unlucky, and he may be poised for an improvement. The projections indicate that he could see better results as he faces a Braves lineup that ranks 14th in batting average and is average offensively overall.

The Braves’ bullpen is considered average (15th in MLB), while the Padres’ bullpen holds a solid spot at 8th. Given the offensive rankings and pitching matchups, this game has the potential to be a balanced contest, with Atlanta slightly favored in the betting odds at -140. Fans should keep an eye on the subtle advantages as both teams look to establish momentum in this critical series.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's four-seamer rate has decreased by 7.2% from last year to this one (43.5% to 36.3%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Extreme groundball batters like Tyler Wade tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach's 96-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 89th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ozzie Albies has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 2nd-best projected batting order of all teams today in of overall offensive skill belongs to the Atlanta Braves.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+8.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 61% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.07, Atlanta Braves 4.65

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

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