San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 6/7/2025

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the San Diego Padres on June 7, 2025, at American Family Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. Both teams are currently in the thick of the race, with the Brewers holding a record of 34-30, while the Padres sit slightly ahead at 36-26. The Brewers are experiencing an above-average season, but their offensive struggles have been a concern, ranking 22nd in MLB. Meanwhile, the Padres have been performing well, showcasing a better offense that ranks 19th overall.

In their last game, the Padres defeated the Brewers, which adds some extra pressure on Milwaukee to bounce back. The Brewers will send Jose Quintana to the mound, who has had a solid season with a 2.77 ERA and a 4-1 record in seven starts. However, advanced metrics suggest he might have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.35, indicating potential regression. Quintana is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Padres lineup that doesn't strike out much, which could give San Diego an edge.

On the other side, Stephen Kolek will take the hill for the Padres. Despite a commendable 3.47 ERA, his performance has also been aided by some good fortune, as his xFIP is 4.05. The projections suggest that both pitchers could allow around 2.5 to 2.6 earned runs, which makes for an interesting battle.

With the Game Total set at an average of 8.5 runs and both teams' moneylines at -110, this matchup is expected to be closely contested. The Brewers need to improve their offensive output to Quintana, while the Padres will look to capitalize on their momentum.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Considering that groundball pitchers hold a substantial edge over groundball bats, Stephen Kolek and his 50.1% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today's matchup going up against 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Jose Quintana in the 20th percentile when it comes to his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Joey Ortiz's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 87.8-mph EV last season has dropped to 84.6-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee has been the #30 team in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (12.7% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+9.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+16.80 Units / 210% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.56, Milwaukee Brewers 4.25

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Stephen Kolek - Padres
  • Jose Quintana - Brewers

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